摘要
在非洲东部地区,霍乱疫情事件的历史可追溯到1836年。如今霍乱已经成为维多利亚湖流域,这一世界上最为贫困和人口增长最快的地区之一的流行病。通过对维多利亚湖流域一些站点的降水、气温和水文特征的分析,研究者发现霍乱疫情与厄尔尼诺现象有密切联系。同样,如果连续两季的气温持续高于正常水平(Tmax),而在第二个高温季之后温度稍微降低,往往会引发一场霍乱疫情。维多利亚湖流域居民的健康保障体系和社会经济系统不足以帮助他们应付霍乱的爆发,因而更容易受到气候波动和气候变化的影响。本报告认为,在较低社会经济状况和缺乏足够卫生保障体系的条件下,维多利亚湖流域地区居民更容易受气候引起的霍乱的影响。在评价社区的适应能力方面,该报告的结论是:长期的贫困使这里的居民更容易遭受霍乱等流行病。
Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in the eastern Africa region dating to 1836.Cholera is now endemic in the Lake Victoria basin,a region with one of the poorest and fastest growing populations in the world. Analyses of precipitation,temperatures,and hydrological characteristics of selected stations in the Lake Victoria basin show that cholera epidemics are closely associated with El Ninoo years.Similarly,sustained temperatures high above normal (Tmax) in two consecutive seasons,followed by a slight cooling in the second season,trigger an outbreak of a cholera epidemic. The health and socioeconomic systems that the lake basin communities rely upon are not robust enough to cope with cholera outbreaks,thus rendenng them vulnerable to the impact of climate variability and change. Collectively,this report argues that communities living around the Lake Victoria basin are vulnerable to climate-induced cholera that is aggravated by the low socioeconomic status and lack of an adequate health care system. In assessing the communities' adaptive capacity,the report concludes that persistent levels of poverty have made these communities vulnerable to cholera epidemics.
