一种濒危大疣蛛的潜在分布区域以及气候变暖的影响(英文)

Potential distribution of the endangered spider Macrothele calpeiana(Araneae,Hexathelidae) and the impact of climate warming

本研究的目的是i)确定伊比利亚半岛一种大疣蛛(Macrothele calpeiana)分布的气候相关性以预测其潜在分布,ii)详细阐述该物种在伊比利亚半岛的分布假说,iii)通过推断模型预测确认该物种在北非和整个地中海地区的适合区域,iv)预测气候变暖对蜘蛛潜在分布区的影响。基于物种的存在、远离目前环境条件下的可能缺失以及其它的气候参数,使用广义线性模型发展了潜在分布的可预测模型。蜘蛛在伊比利亚半岛上的潜在分布远大于目前已知的分布区,延伸到尚未发现蜘蛛分布的葡萄牙广大地区。本文提出了该种大疣蛛在适合分布区域内没有分布的历史因素。北非具有适合该物种的条件但却没有该属物种的分布支持了大疣蛛(Macrothele)祖先的东方起源假说。对地中海地区蜘蛛分布的推断突出显示了阿根廷地区有合适的分布区,该地区也发现有另一种欧洲大疣蛛。气候变暖将对现存于伊比利亚的M.calpeiana种群产生负面影响,因为气候变暖将减少并破碎化蜘蛛在北非的潜在栖息地。目前,急需确认在葡萄牙广大地区是否存在蜘蛛物种,发展对该属的系统发育研究以确定大疣蛛属起源和扩散史的理论。

The aims of this contribution are i） to identify major climate correlates of the distribution of Macrothele calpeiana （Walckenaer, 1805） in the Iberian Peninsula in order to predict its potential distribution; ii） to elaborate a hypothesis for the distribution of the spider in the Iberian Peninsula; iii） to identify suitable places for the species in both North Africa and the entire Mediterranean region through extrapolation of model predictions; and iv） to predict the impact of climate warming on the potential spider distribution. Generalized Linear Models were used to develop a potential distribution predictive model. Potential Iberian Peninsula distribution extends through a large part of Portugal where the spider has not been found. Historical factors are proposed as contributors to the absence of M. calpeiana from suitable areas. Existence of suitable conditions for the species in North Africa, and the absence of the genus there, favours the oriental origin of a Macrothele ancestor. Extrapolation to the Mediterranean region highlighted suitable territory in the Aegean area, where M. cretica Kulczynski, 1903, the other European Macrothele species, is found. Climate warming will negatively affect the existing Iberian M. calpeiana populations because it will reduce and fragment potential North African habitat. Confirmation of species presence, or absence, in much of Portugal and North Africa is a priority, as well as the development of phylogenetic studies of the genus to establish a solid hypothesis of Macrothele origin and dispersion history .