摘要
从新疆实际出发提出一种简捷的预报程式,用以判定地震三要素。结果表明,(1)新疆3级地震累积频次低于均值6个月,1年内新疆发生6级地震的概率为90%;(2)以新疆地震活跃期响应地震分布区做为预备震源区,该区未来3年发生中强震的概率为86%;(3)预备震源区出现一年以上低6值,其250 km区域1年内发生6级地震的概率为75%;(4)当系统处于相对稳定状态时系统内部个体的涨落很难使系统出现非线性响应,而当系统处于亚失稳状态时,系统内部个体的涨落有可能触发系统中处于高应力状态下的地震活动。
A simple and shortcut prediction method was brought forward, three factors of earthquake can be determined by it. The result shows that, （1） The cumulative frequency of Ms3 earthquakes is lower than the average frequency for 6 months in Xinjiang, the probability of Ms6 earthquakes occur in Xinjiang is 90%. （2） If regard the response earthquakes region as preparation hypocenter region during earthquakes are active in Xinjiang, the probability of mid-strong earthquakes occur in Xinjiang is 86%. （3） If there are low b value in preparation hypocenter region for more than one year, the probability of Ms6 earthquakes occur in radius of 250 km for the region within one year is 75%. （4） When system is stable, the change of one unit can＇t let the whole system occur nonlinear respponse,but when the system is not stable, the change of one unit maybe trigger the earthquakes under high stress state.
出处
《内陆地震》
2007年第3期218-229,共12页
Inland Earthquake
基金
新疆地震科学基金项目(2006203)资助
关键词
地震学特征参量
地震频度
响应地震
B值
Seismological Characteristic Parameter
Earthquake Frequency
Response Earthquake
b Value
