中国就业与经济增长关系的经验研究——“奥肯定律”在中国的验证

Experience Studies of the Relation between Employment and Economic Growth in China——The Verification of "Okun Law" in China

本文选用中国54年跨度（1952-2005）的样本数据，采用“协整”检验和误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验方法，对就业与经济增长关系进行了检验。其结论是：长期趋势上，中国经济高速增长的同时并未带来名义就业率的高速增长，经济增长不是名义就业率增长的格兰杰原因，即“奥肯定律”在中国出现悖论。因此，中国实现适度经济增长，体现科学发展观目标的关键在于提高就业质量和增加有效就业数量。

This paper selects and uses the major sample data during the past 54 years（ 1952-2005 ） in China. It adopts “Cointegration” Test, error correcting model and Granger Causality Tests, and carries out experience tests on unstable time series. The conclusion can be drawn as follows： a high growth of Chinese economy hasn＇ t brought about the high increase of its nominal employment which in fact, has not been caused by economic growth in terms of Granger Causality. Then “Okun Law” appears Paradox in China and meanwhile, a one -way and positive Granger Causality relationship appears between the economie growth and nominal employment in China, which shows that the key to China＇s realizing moderate economic growth, and embodying science developing target lies in improving the quantity of employment and increasing the number of effective employment.