2007年中国啤酒大麦与麦芽的生产概况和2007～2008年度市场走向分析

The Production of China Brewage Barley and Malt in 2007 and the Market Trend from 2007 to 2008

近年来，在我国啤酒工业持续发展和麦芽产能持续膨胀的过程中，国际啤酒人麦的生产与市场在诸多因素的影响下出现了巨大的波动，国内啤酒大麦和麦芽的布局、生产与市场也在诸多因素的影响下发生了巨人的变化，这些波动和变化对啤酒工业产生了很大影响，而且这些波动和变化还将继续下去。

This article proposed the current focuses on the brewage raw materials and market,as well as evaluated the total demand and total supply of barley.It introduced the current China malt industry and analyzed the factors impact market and predicted market trend.It finally proposed several basic issues about developing and improving China barley production and market, which are worthy to be considered and discussed by experts. In general,from 2007 to 2008,China is estimated to yield 1.99 million tons barley and may import approximately 2.2 million tons mainly from Australia,Canada and France.Plus storage from last year,the total supply to market would reach 4.2 million tons.Therefore,the supply could meet the demand and maybe have a little surplus. The China market trend of barley and malt products from the end of 2007 to 2008 is described as following: The price of China brewage barley is keeping high till the end of this year.In the first six months of 2008,Australian barley will dominate China barley market.But the price is lower than in 2006 and 2007.Meanwhile,China barley will also play a part in market,the price could be diverse.In 2007 and 2008,the safety of China barley product will enhance compar- ing with last year.And the market share of domestic barley will decrease to 50% even less.With the yield of malt increases, furious competition will make the quality requirement of malt product stricter.In next year,China malt market is becoming more mature.However,considering the price of imported barley could fall slightly,while the total supply would go up greatly,malt market would probably bring about more chal- lenges to corporations,while also will bring more opportunities. We should realize that the premium variants priced around 4000 RMB per ton will not dominate China malt market, because the ordinary brewage products are still dominantly in total yield.