基于产出税征收预期可耗竭资源开采模型研究

Study on Extraction Model of Exhaustible Resources Based on Output Taxes Levy Expectation

如何有效地开采可耗竭资源是资源拥有者面临的重要问题,尤其在涉及到不确定性问题时。现实中,政府可以通过制定具体政策或改变政策制定的前景来影响决策,对后者进行了研究,首先描述了资源产出税征收政策预期的特征,发现资源税征收过程并不服从泊松过程,在此基础上,利用全概率公式建立了政策预期下的开采模型。比较两个模型得到的结果,考虑政策预期的要复杂的多,一定程度上解释了决策的复杂性及不一致性。

It is important for resources owners to extract exhaustible resources effectively. When uncertain is referred, it is especially true. In fact, the government can enact policy or change the future of the policy in order to impose on decisions. The paper analyses the latter. Firstly the characteristic of taxes policy expectation is described. It is found that taxes levy process is not followed Poisson process. Then based on this analysis, extraction model under policy expectation is built using total probability formula. Comparing solves of these models we find that the latter is more complex than the former. To some extent, this analyses complexity and inconsistency of decisions.