京津冀水权市场初次配置问题量化研究

Quantitive Anlysis on the Initial Allocation of Water Right in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area

京津冀地区水资源短缺日益严重,建立水权市场和水权交易制度是一种必然趋势,其中水权初次配置的定价模式是一项关键性核心问题。本文以北京市民用水价历史变化作为一个马尔可夫过程进行建模分析,对京津冀水权制度建设中的初次配置水价模式和水权市场的运行情况进行预测,并对京津冀水权市场建设提出了多项有针对性的政策建议。

As the water resource crisis gets more and more serious in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei area, setting up a water right transition system becomes an inevitable choice, in which the pricing method for the first time water right allocation is a critical issue. This paper, through a modeling analysis with the historical civilian water price changes in Beijing City as a Morkov Process, tries to discover the pattern, and predict the trend, of water pricing for the first time water right allocation in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei area. Some policy suggestions are put forward conceming the establishment of the water right system for this area.