综合预测方法在房地产预警系统中的实证研究

Living Study on Applying Poly-method of Forecast to Real Estate Early Warning System

警兆指标的预测准确、可靠与否是预警系统是否成功的关键。本文从预测的原理和方法入手,针对房地产预警系统涉及指标多、数据量大、影响因素多和难以准确预测的特点,提出采用多元线性回归、趋势外推和B-J方法来进行综合预测。经过实证,综合预测具有准确、可靠和可行的效果,该方法可以推广应用到其他较复杂的经济预测中。

The veracity and reliability of alarm index forecast is the key whether the early warning system succeed or not. In this paper, starting with principle and method of forecast, taking into account of the characteristics having a good deal of index, data, influencing factors and difficult to forecast accurately of real estate early system, putting forward to apply poly - method of forecast, such as method of linearity multi- regression, trend extrapolation and B -J, to the alarm index. By living study, it has very good effects of veracity, reliability and feasibility, and this method can be used to other complicated economic forecast.