中小城市交通生成量预测模型研究

Study on the Traffic Demand Forecasting Models for the Small and Medium-Sized Cities

随着经济的发展,许多中小城市都面临着城市扩大的趋势,土地利用布局发生很大的改变.而土地利用是出行活动生成的决定因素之一.因此,为了提高中小城市出行生成预测模型的精度,将中小城市的交通生成预测问题和交通小区土地利用结合起来,引入区位势能对土地利用进行量化,从而使预测结果更加精确.

Along with the economic development, many small and medium-sized cities are facing the tendency of city expansion, and the layout of the land-use is having a big change. Land-use is one of critical factors which influence the trip production. Therefore, in order to enhance the precision of the trip production forecasting model of the small and medium-sized cities, the trip production forecasting problems of the small and medium-sized city are combined with the land - use of the traffic zone. The region potential energy to measure the land use which makes the forecasting result more correct is introduced.