基于VAR模型的中国铁路货运需求实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Demand of Rail Freight Transport in China on Basis of VAR Model

在建立铁路货物运输、国民经济、铁路路网扩展的协整VAR模型基础上,对铁路货物运输需求的长期的收入弹性和供给弹性进行了估计,并对三者的短期动态关系进行了分析。结果表明,铁路货物运输具有长期平稳的,幅度不大的收入弹性,而长期的供给弹性大且不稳定。在短期中,国民经济是铁路货物运输的重要影响因素,路网扩展对其影响不大。铁路货运和路网扩展的短期变化对国民经济冲击不大。铁路货物运输是路网扩展的重要影响因素,而国民经济的短期变化对路网扩展的影响不大。

With the rapid development of road and other transport modes in China, the railway freight transport is confronted with great challenge. So, the relations of rail freight transport, development of national economy and extension of railway become focuses. This paper makes a cointegreting VAR model according to the data from Chinese Statistical Year Book. On the basis of the model of the long-run and short-run equilibrium of rail freight demand are analyzed, The result shows that the rail freight transport in China has a stable and low elastic coefficient of income and a high but unstable elastic coefficient of supply in long-run. In short dynamics, the national economy is the first factor affecting rail freight demand and in the second term the innovation reaches a top point. Extension of railway has little effect on rail freight transport. The innovations from rail freight transport and railway extension has little impulse on national economy. Rail freight is the important factor affecting extension of rail-way with a third-term top, but GDP has a little impulse on it. Further analysis on the result and suggestion on policy are made.