电力市场条件下发电企业投资评估模型分析

An Analysis of the Assessment Model for Investment in Power Enterprises in the Electric Power Market

随着电力工业市场化改革的进行,电力市场的竞争日趋激烈,发电企业的投资决策也面临更多的不确定性因素,因此加强项目的投资评估工作变得至关重要。项目投资评估主要是通过评价投资行为的未来成本所带来的未来效益,为投资决策提供科学合理的依据。文章通过利用发电企业电力库得到的收入、与外界不同形式的合同以及他们固定的和可变的运行成本,来估计一个特定的发电商的利润;文章描述了一种计算收入和利润的方法,它可以用来预测系统边际价格和失负荷概率。

In the process of electric power marketing reformation, the competition in the electric power market has become increasingly fierce. Thus the investing policies in the power generating enterprises have encountered more and more uncertain elements. It is of vital importance to enhance investing assessment work. The assessment of investment projects serves to provide reasonable scientific basis for investment policies mainly through the assessment of the future profits brought by future costs of the investment. This article avails of the income produced by the storage of electricity of the power generating industries, various forms of contracts which are different from the external world, and the fixed and flexible operating costs to calculate the profits of a certain generating enterprise. It describes a method for the calculating of income and profits, which may also be used to predict the marginal price of the system and the probability of load losses.