传递函数模型在医院业务收入预测中的应用

THE TRANSFER FUNCTION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN HOSPITAL BUSINESS INCOME

[目的]介绍传递函数模型在医院业务收入预测中的应用。[方法]利用传递函数模型对医院业务收入影响因素进行分析。在此基础上,利用分析结果对医院业务收入做出预测,并将预测结果与ARIMA模型预测结果进行比较。[结果]在本次研究中,出院人数成为医院业务收入的主要影响因素;预测结果对比中,传递函数模型预测结果较ARIMA模型预测结果接近实际值。[结论]传递函数模型可在对医院业务收入影响因素进行客观分析的基础上作出较为精确的预测。

[ Objective] To introduce the transfer function model and its application in forecasting hospital business income. [Methods] Transfer function mode was used to analyze the determinants of hospital business income. Based on the analysis results, hospital business income was forecasted and then compared with the forecasted result of ARIMA model. [ Results] The study demonstrated that the number of hospital discharges was the major factor influencing hospital business incoine. In comparison with ARIMA model, transfer function model showed better precision of forecast. [Conclusions] Transfer function model can make more precise forecast due to objectively calculating determinants of hospital business income.