系统动力学方法在水资源开发利用中的应用

An Application of System Dynamics method on the Water Resources Development and Utilization

本文运用系统动力学模型，将水资源开发利用置于一个复杂时变的社会经济系统中进行模拟与分析．以反映所研究地区未来时期水资源开发利用发展变化趋势，为制定与国民经济和社会发展协调一致的水资源开发利用战略奠定基础．

This paper, by using system dynamics model, puts forward a simulation and analysis method which brings the development and utilization of water resources into a complex and timevarying society-economy sistem, to reflect future tendeney of the development utilization of water resources in the subject area, and provide the water-lacking area with a making-strategy basis for the a good harmony between the development and utilization of water resources、 soclety and economy.