流动性过剩与股票价格重估

Excess Liquidity and the Revaluation of Stock Prices

在固定汇率与资本管制框架下,剩余储蓄的持续增加必然导致流动性过剩,对股票市场而言,只有当实体经济持续的剩余储蓄增加引起流动性过剩时,才会推动股票市场估值中枢的剧烈抬升。对近期经济指标的分析表明,股票市场重估将会持续下去,而货币政策紧缩引起的投资下降会进一步扩大剩余储蓄,加快重估的进程。

Under current fixed foreign exchange regime and capital flow control framework, the continuing increase in excess saving will necessarily result in excess liquidity. Based on the analysis of the data of China＇ s capital market, we conclude that only when the excess liquidity is caused by the continuing saving increase in the real economy, the intrinsic value of the assets and the stock prices will be greatly raised. The analysis of the recent economic indexes indicates that the revaluation of the stock prices will continue. While the decreased investment by contractive monetary policy will further increase excess saving and then speed up the process of revaluation.