短期资本流动、汇率风险与共生危机

Short-run Capital Flow,Exchange Rate Risk and Symbiosis Crisis

20世纪80年代以来,世界范围内发生的20余次金融危机均表现出货币危机与银行危机的共生性。国外学者提出了很多模型对资本流动与共生危机进行解释,Ilan Goldfajn和Rodrigo O. Valdes(1997)提出的资本流动与共生危机模型是一个典型的代表。目前,我国短期资本流动数额和所占比例都越来越高,而且我国银行体系具有较强的脆弱性,有可能形成银行危机与货币危机相互作用的共生危机。因此,我们应有效地控制短期资本的流入和流出,避免短期资本流动急剧变化对汇率和银行体系的冲击;加快银行体系改革,避免银行危机导致资本外逃和货币危机。

Since 1980＇ s over twenty financial crises in the world have shown a symbiosis feature of monetary crisis and bank crisis. Foreign scholars have established various models explaining capital flow and symbiosis crisis. Capital flow and symbiosis crisis model given by Ilan Goldfajn and Rodrigo O. Valdes （1997）is a typical representative. At present, short -run capital flow volume and occupying ratio in China are increasingly higher. Meanwhile, China＇ s bank system shows big weakness, and is likely to form a symbiosis crisis of bank crisis and monetary crisis. Therefore, we should make effective control over inflow and outflow of short - run capital, avoiding assault of short -run capital abrupt flow to exchange rate and banking system; we should quicken banking system reform, avoiding bank crisis causing capital fleeing and monetary crisis.