金融市场化进程中的金融结构、政府行为、金融开放与经济增长间的影响研究——基于中国经验(1978-2005年)的实证

On the Financial Structure,Government Behaviour,Financial Openness and Economic Growth in Financial Liberalization in China

本文从金融中介、金融市场、政府行为、金融开放4个方面进行考察,建立了1978-2005年中国金融市场化数据库,构建了衡量中国金融市场化进程的相对指数,并在此基础上对4个方面与经济增长间的关系做了协整分析和Granger因果关系检验。实证结果证明4个方面之间几乎均有双向Granger因果关系,但经济增长仅对金融中介和政府改革有单向Granger因果关系,表明中国金融市场化在短期内未能促进经济增长,而经济增长则促进了金融中介市场化和政府改革。

Based on the study of financial intermediary liberalization, financial market liberalization, government behavior and financial openness, the authors firstly set up the database of China＇s financial reform during 1978 -2005, and the index to measure the development of financial liberalization in China. Secondly, the paper empirically tests the relationship of these four aspects with economic growth respectively by cointegration test and Granger approaches. The results show that the new index could imitate the financial liberalization changes during China＇s economic transaction, and the dual direction forms of Granger＇s causality exit among the four aspects excepted the pairs both the growth vs. intermediary and growth vs. government respectively, which could suggest that it is not that the financial liberalization promote the economic growth, but that the growth affect the financial intermediary liberalization and government reform in the short-run of China＇s economy.