人民币升值预期、物价稳定与热钱控制的三元和谐

On the Expectations of RMB Appreciation,the Stability of Price and the Control of Hot Money

本文分析汇率转轨过程中的货币政策选择。蒙代尔不可能三角指出,中央银行不可能同时实现汇率稳定、资本自由流动和独立的货币政策三个目标。沿着这样的思路,本文发现如果央行放弃汇率的稳定性,则在人民币升值预期下,物价稳定和热钱控制两个目标是可以实现的。我们的简单分析表明,国家可以通过增加汇率的波动率,以及汇率与国际资本市场的相关性提升汇率风险溢价,进而缓解三元悖论,实现三元和谐,这为我国当前货币政策操作提供了一个新的思路。

In the paper, Mundell-Flemming trilemma is used to illustrate the economic performance in China in 2006. The authors suggest that government can relieve the impossible trilemma by enlarging the floating margin of exchange rate and further increase the risk premium of exchange rate through the correlation between exchange rate and the international capital market. This is the new idea for the current operation of monetary policy in China.