我国城乡收入差距的度量及其对经济增长的效应

The Rural-urban Income Disparity and Its Effects to Economic Growth in the Case of China

本文根据我国城乡收入差距的现状计算并度量城乡收入差距的泰尔指数,基于计算的泰尔指数和我国实际人均GDP的变动特征而设定面板协整模型,以此揭示我国城乡收入差距与经济增长的长期关系,并基于面板误差校正模型考察短期动态调节效应。本文的主要结果为:我国的泰尔指数与经济增长之间存在异质性的面板协整关系:城乡收入差距对经济增长的长期效应取决于城乡收入差距水平和经济发展阶段,异质性揭示地区差异。本文的结论说明,改革初期的城乡收入差距促进了经济增长,而现阶段城乡收入差距的扩大对经济增长产生阻滞作用。进一步,这种长期效应抑制了短期经济增长并对城乡收入差距的扩大产生刺激效应。因此,为落实科学发展观,短期内应以提高农民收入和加大农业投入为重点,有效缓解和抑制城乡收入差距的扩大;长期内应着力加大对农村劳动力的人力资本投资,从根本上改变我国城乡收入差距对经济增长的抑制效应。

The purpose of this paper is to study the stage effects of regional rural-urban income disparity to economic growth in the case of China. To do that, we measure the Tale index and specify a panel cointegration model with respect to the Chinese situation of rural-urban income disparity and economic growth. The estimated results of the panel cointegration model indicate that there is the panel cointegartion relationship with different structure depending on the level of the rural-urban income disparity and the economic stage. Such panel cointegration implies that the effect of rural-urban income disparity to economic growth is positive at the beginning of Chinese reform, however, the effect is negative at present. Estimated PVECM indicates that the long- run effects of the disparity depress the economic growth and stimulate the disparity in short run. Therefore, to implementing the view of scientific development, we should focus on increasing farmer＇s income so as to reduce rural-urban income disparity in short run and promoting investment to farmer＇s human capital so as to change long- run effects of the disparity to the economic growth.