经济周期同步性与东亚金融合作的可行性研究

Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia

理论和实证研究表明,经济周期同步性是衡量经济金融合作的收益与成本的重要指标。本文运用共同趋势与共同周期理论研究东亚国家(地区)之间的经济周期是否存在同步性。本文以1994—2005年间ASEAN+3国家的GDP季度时间序列为基础建立了多变量向量误差修正模型。实证分析得出ASEAN+3国家的GDP季度时间序列之间在短期内有共同周期,在长期里存在共同发展趋势。因此,东亚国家(地区)经济周期在样本期间具有同步性,满足金融合作最重要的前提条件。东亚国家(地区)应当进一步强化彼此间的经贸交流和经济金融合作,真正发挥区域经济之间的相互带动作用,从而实现区域经济的共同繁荣。

The aim of this paper is to investigate business cycle synchronization among East Asia countries（regions）. It has an important implication in terms of evaluating the costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination. Indeed, using both a cointegration and a common cycles theory in a VAR （p） framework, a set of countries （regions） is said to have common and synchronous business cycle if the short-run and long-run dynamics is perfectly correlated. Using seasonally adjusted real GDP per capita for period 1994Q1 to 2005Q3, we show that East Asia countries （regions） have common and synchronous business cycles and qualify well as a candidate to establish financial cooperation in the future.