中国政府高储蓄的成因分析和中期展望

The Factor Analysis and Mid-term Prospect of Chinese Government Savings

中国高储蓄的特征事实是居民、政府、企业三部门储蓄率都位于较高水平。传统文献集中于对居民储蓄的分析,而相对忽视了政府储蓄和企业储蓄。本文集中对中国政府储蓄进行分析,认为导致政府高储蓄的原因包括近年来政府财政收入上升以及消费性支出在财政支出中的比重下降等。导致政府对教育、医疗和社会保障等社会公共产品支出不足的根源在于1994年税制改革造成地方政府的财权和事权不匹配。中期展望显示,中国政府储蓄率将在未来5～10年内显著下降,并对财政平衡带来越来越大的压力。

The stylized fact of Chinese high savings is that the household saving rate,the government saving rate and the corporate saving rate are all in high levels.Traditional research has been focused on the household savings, and relatively neglected the other sector savings.This paper focuses on the government savings,and discovers that the reasons of high government savings include the increase of government revenue and the declining share of consumption expenditure in total fiscal expenditure.The root why Chinese government does not expend e- nough on the social public goods such as education,medical service and social insurance lies in the tax system reform in 1994,which caused the mismatch of revenues and duties in local governments.The mid-term prospect shows that the Chinese government saving rate will decline significantly in 5—10 years ahead,and will bring larger and larger pressure on the fiscal balance of China.