我国经济增长的多重均衡现象——基于动态门槛面板数据模型的研究

Multiple Equilibria of Chinese Economy Growth—A Dynamic Threshold Panel Data Approach

本文首次应用动态门槛面板数据模型，对我国经济增长的多重均衡现象进行了研究，研究表明我国经济增长具有明显的多重均衡现象。当人均收入低于1007元时，存在着经济增长障碍，经济处于低水平陷阱；一旦突破低收入门槛，在同一的收入状态里省区经济增长率趋向收敛。然而，由于较高收入状态的省区收入收敛速度快于较低收入状态的省区，因此，我国富裕省区与相对落后省区的人均收入差距还在不断扩大；我国目前还没有达到增长极限，不存在高水平陷阱现象。

This paper is the first attempt to apply the dynamic threshold panel data model for an empirical study on multiple equilibria of Chinese economy growth. The result shows that there are multiple equilibria of Chinese economy growth. When per-capita income is be- low 1 007 Yuan, poor provinces persist at their income levels, which shows possible barriers to growth. Once the barriers of the low income regime are overcome economies of same income regimes move towards convergence. However, the gap of per-capita income is still enlarged over time between the poorer provinces and the richer ones since the speed of convergence in higher-income income regimes is faster than it in lower-income regimes. Our result does not find limits to growth that would create high equilibrium traps.