货币流通速度和产出变动的动态一般均衡分析

Movements of Money Velocity and Output: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

结构冲击如何影响我国货币流通速度和产出变动的动态一般均衡分析结果表明：货币、制度冲击使货币流通速度和产出基本上同向变动。短期内，技术冲击使货币流通速度下降，表明我国狭义货币具有奢侈品特征。就货币流通速度的变动而言，制度和货币冲击具有持久的正向效应，制度冲击最重要，货币冲击次之，技术冲击不重要，没有长期影响。就产出的变动而言，货币冲击产生了持久的“Tobin效应”，制度、技术冲击具有显著、持久的正向效应。制度冲击最重要，技术冲击次之，货币冲击不重要。

in the dynamic general equilibrium framework, this paper analyzes the effects of monetary, institutional and technological shocks to the velocity of money and output in China. Our empirical results show that the velocity of money and output move in the same direction when monetary and institutional shocks happen. In the short run, technological shocks slow down the velocity of money, indicating that money is a luxury good in China. Institutional and monetary shocks have permanent and positive effects on the velocity of money while technological shocks have no long-run effects. As for the movement of output, monetary shock produces permanent Tobin effects, and institutional and technological shocks have significant and permanent positive effects.