通货膨胀目标制并不能解决我国货币政策低效率问题——一个基于政策时滞和扰动冲击的研究

Inflation Targeting Cannot Solve the Problem of Low Efficiency of Monetary Policy in China—A Research Based on Time-lags and Shocks of Monetary Policies

本文在一个引入时滞、政策传导扰动和中介目标的货币政策模型中，分析了通货膨胀目标制的实施与货币政策效率之间的关系。我们发现，由于货币政策的时滞和货币政策传导机制的不畅，中央银行无法及时地对经济中的扰动做出正确的估计，尽管可以利用中间目标变量和其他参考变量的实际值对目标值的偏离所给出的信息来适当调整货币政策，但仍然无法对冲击及时做出正确的响应；再加上中央银行货币政策执行中的财政占优、金融占优和外部占优问题，使得中央银行无法执行其意愿的政策，因此通货膨胀目标制的引入无助于解决货币政策的低效率问题。

In a multi-period monetary policy model with time lags, intermediate targets, and perturbations in monetary policies, we discuss the relationship between inflation targeting and the efficiency of monetary policies. We show that, because of time lags and perturbations in in the realization of monetary policies, the central bank cannot estimate various shocks promptly and so cannot respond to shocks. As a result, low efficiency of monetary policies is unavoidable. Besides, under inflation targeting, it is difficult for the central bank to achieve the desirable optimal policy and solve the problem of low efficiency.