摘要
改革开放20多年以来,我国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就,对外贸易得以飞速发展。本文采用ADF检验、协整检验、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果检验、方差分解和脉冲响应函数等一系列现代经济计量学方法,研究我国改革开放以来对外贸易与经济增长之间的长期动态均衡关系及信息传导机制。结果表明:进出口与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系,但从短期来看,均衡关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较慢。进出口与经济增长之间存在着单向的Granger因果关系。进口和出口对经济增长都具有拉动作用,但拉动作用在长期和短期的表现有所不同。
This paper discusses the long-run dynamic equilibrium relationship between exportation,importation and economic growth in China in the period of 1978-2004 by a series of modern econometrics means： ADF test,cointegration test,VECM,Granger causality test,variance decomposition and impulse responses.And the following results are found.Import and export both have the pulling effects on economic growth in China.In the short run,the export＇s pulling effects on economic growth is more than that of import.In the long run,the import＇s pulling effects on economic growth is more than that of export.Import is more sustainable than export with regard to the pulling effects.These results are extremely valuable and significant for foreign trade policy-making in China.
