1990年以来鲁南地区热量资源的变化及未来趋势

Change and Future Trend of Thermal Resource in South of Shandong since 1990

为了解1990年以来鲁南地区热量资源变化情况，将资料分为近15a（1991--2005）及前30a（1961—1990年）两组，用K—W检验分析两组样本是否有显著差异，并用一元线性回归模型的回归系数估算未来气候变暖时热量资源的变化。结果表明：1991--2005年鲁南地区与前30a相比，年平均气温明显升高，≥0℃及≥10℃积温及持续日数明显增加，无霜期明显延长，热量资源显著增加。当未来气候变暖时，年平均气温每升高1℃，≥O℃积温将增加308～309℃·d，持续日数延长15—16天，≥10℃积温将增加235—248℃·d，持续日数延长6—8天，无霜期将延长9～14天。

For understanding the changing rule of thermal resource in south of Shandong since 1990, based on the data during the latest 15 a （1991--2005） and the past 30 a （1961--1990）, two groups of data are verified by the K-W test, and the change of thermal resource is estimated by using the regression coefficient. The results show the mean annual temperature increases significantly during the latest 15 a （1991--2005） in south of Shandong; the accumulated temperature≥0 ℃and ≥ 10 ℃ and the lasting days increase; the frostless period extends and the thermal resource increases obviously. When future climate warming, the average temperature increases 1 ℃C , the accumulated temperature≥0 ℃ will increase 308 -309 ℃ · d, the lasting days will extend 15 -16 d, the accumulated temperature ≥ 10 ℃ will increase 235 - 248 ℃· d, the lasting days will increase 6 - 8 d, and the frostless period will extend 9 14 d.