ECMWF模式副热带高压指数释用产品的应用

Application of subtropical high index from ECMWF model

应用2006年6—8月欧洲中心数值预报资料,从计算出的副热带高压面积指数、强度指数和西伸脊点、脊线位置及北界位置分析入手,对副热带高压的特征预报进行统计学检验和误差对比分析。结果表明:基于欧洲中心数值预报模式的计算产品对于副热带高压的预报在96 h内误差较小,120—168 h误差较大,副热带高压的预报总体上呈现强度偏强、面积偏大、西脊点偏西和脊线及北界偏北的误差特点。

Based on the products of ECMWF model from June to August 2006, the area index, the intensity index, the location of the western ridge point, the locations of ridge line and the north boundary of subtropical high were analyzed, and the prediction results of subtropical high characteristic indices were tested and the errors were checked. The results indicated that the errors of subtropical high prediction based on ECMWF model within 96 hours were small, while the error within 120-168 hours increased obviously. Compared with the observation results, the intensities and the area of subtropical high prediction were over larger, and the western ridge point was moved to the west, while the ridge line and the north boundary were moved to the north.