胶东半岛丘陵区典型流域气温—降水的变化特征及突变分析——以大沽夹河为例

Analyses of Variation Characteristics and Abruptness of Temperature-Precipitation of Typical Basin in Jiaodong Peninsula Hilly Watersheda——Case Study of the Dagujia River

利用大沽夹河流域1966～2003年各水文站逐年、月气温和降水实测资料,采用线性倾向估计和Mann-Ken-dall法,对流域气候变化趋势的年季特征及突变性进行了分析。结果表明,①近40年来,大沽夹河流域年平均气温整体呈上升趋势,降水呈下降趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.20℃/10a和-42.17 mm/10a。②春、夏、冬3季平均气温均呈上升趋势,秋季呈下降趋势。春、冬季的气温倾向率大于全年且冬季高于春季（分别为0.216和0.583℃/10a）,夏季的气温倾向率（0.01℃/10a）小于全年;各季平均降水的变化趋势与年降水量变化趋势基本相似,整体亦呈减少趋势,但减少的幅度均明显小于全年平均降水。其中,夏秋季下降趋势较快,春冬季较慢,倾向率分别为-21.76、-15.52、-2.52和-2.25 mm/10a。③除冬季外,各季及年平均气温均在1972年左右发生突变。其中,夏季在1994年左右发生第2次突变,秋季突变次数相对较多;降水的突变多发生在1970年和1980年初。

Based on the long-term data（1966～2003） of the annual and monthly temperature and precipitation obtained from the hydrological stations of the Dagujia River basin,the annual and seasonal characteristics of climate change trend and abruptness were analyzed by using the linear trend estimation and Mann-Kendall methods.The results showed that,①in recent 40 years,the annual mean temperature presented an evident increasing trend,while the precipitation decreased obviously.The climate change rates were 0.20℃/10a and-42.17 mm/10a,respectively.②The seasonal mean temperatures of spring,summer and winter had an increasing trend,while the autumn decreased;the temperature change rate of spring and winter（0.216 ℃/10a and 0.583℃/10a） was higher than that of annual mean temperature,and the summer change rate（0.01 ℃/10a） was lower than that of annual mean temperature;seasonal precipitation trend was similar to that of annual,but the decreasing scope was obviously lower than that of the annual temperature.The precipitation of summer and autumn decreased rapidly,while it decreased slowly.The change rates of precipitation in summer,autumn,spring and winter were-21.76mm/10a,-15.52 mm/10a,-2.52 mm/10a and-2.25 mm/10a,respectively.③Except the winter,the seasonal and annual mean temperature abruptness occurred in 1972 or so,and the second abruptness appeared in summer of 1994.The autumn had more abruptness points compared with other seasons.Most of the precipitation abruptness took place in the beginning of 1970s and 1980s.