人民币汇率研究的方法论基础——理想世界与现实世界的分合

Methodology Foundation of Research on the Exchange Rate of RMB:the Contacts and Differences between Idealized World and Realistic World

近十多年来,人民币汇率研究持续高涨,积累起大量文献。梳理这些文献,揭示过往研究中普遍存在的方法谬误,对评价现有研究成果的价值和促进今后研究的进步具有重要意义。本文论述了理想世界与现实世界、科学概念与日常概念的关系。在详尽论证他们之间本质区别的基础上揭示了过往研究中混淆理想世界与现实世界、科学概念与日常概念而引起的方法谬误。在批判如上方法魔障之后,本文归纳了学术界处理理论模型与现实世界之间关系的两类主流观点,并指出其各自的不足之处。坚实的方法论基础是人民币汇率研究有效进行的必备前提。

More and more economists have had great eagerness to study the exchange rate of RMB and there have been many papers and books. Through an analysis of these papers and hooks, we find out the error of research methods, which is of great significance for judging the value of these achievements and promoting future research. We hold that there are contacts and differences between idealized world and realistic world and between science concept and everyday concept. We criticize the error of methods that economists confuse the differences between idealized world and realistic world and between science concept and everyday concept. Then, we sum up the two main viewpoints of the relationship between theoretical model and realistic world in the academic circles, and point out their shortcomings separately. We believe that the solid methodology foundation is the necessary prerequisite to the effective research of the exchange rate of RMB.