灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在土钉支护结构变形预测中的应用

Application of Gray Renewal GM(1,1) Model in Deformation Forecasting for Soil-nail Supporting Structures

土钉支护结构在深基坑、边坡支护中有着越来越广泛的应用,因其受众多因素的影响,且部分因素难以确定,故是一个典型的灰色系统。由于常规GM(1,1)模型被用于预测时,精度较高的仅仅是最近的几个数据,越往未来发展,该模型的预测意义就越弱,故尝试用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型来模拟和预测土钉结构的变形。事实表明,这种预测可以取得非常好的效果,有着很好的利用价值。

The soil nail supporting structure in the deep excavation and slope supporting is widely used.Because of many factors,in which some are difficult to be determined,it is a typical gray system.When the conventional GM（1,1） model is used in predicting,only a few recent data are of high accuracy,and in the wake of developing,the predicting function of the model becomes more and more weak,so the gray renewal GM（1,1） model is used to try to simulate and predict the deformation of the soil nail structure.It is shown that such the forecasting may achieve a very good result and has a very good application value.