未来十年绵阳市商品住房需求趋势预测

Prediction of the Housing-demand Trend of Mianyang in the Next Ten Years

人口变动是影响住房需求的一个重要因素。根据绵阳市1997-2006年人口变动情况、2007-2016年人口变动趋势和实地调查购房者购房意愿,结合绵阳市城市化进程,用"住宅需求构造式主要变动因素假设方法",建立了数学模型,对2007-2016年绵阳市城镇住房面积需求和户型需求进行预测和分析。结果显示:未来十年绵阳市城镇住房需求数量呈不断增加趋势,到2016年绵阳市城镇住房需求数量将达到30905套,城镇住房新建建筑面积为315.2328万m2,商品住房市场具有较大的发展潜力;中小户型住房受到广大购房者的欢迎,并且由于土地供给不断减少,中小户型住房将会成为绵阳市住房市场的一个发展方向。因此应加大绵阳城市品牌宣传力度,吸引更多的外来购房者。房地产商应转变开发方向,适应消费者的需求,大力开发中小户型住房,增加中小户型住房在楼盘中所占的比例。分析预测的结果对绵阳市住房市场的发展有一定的参考价值。

The variation of population is one of the important factors of housing demands. Based on the variation of population of Mianyang from the year 1997 to the year 2006, the variation of population in the next ten years, and the aspiration of residents, considering the course of urbanization, this paper establishes some mathematical models by means of the assumption of major structural residential demand changes, then analyzes and predicts the quantity and size of housing demands in the next ten years. The result shows that the quantity of housing demands will increase, and small and medium - sized houses will be very popular, the residential demand volume will reach 30,905 sets, new urban housing area will reach 315. 2328 million m2 in 2016. As the supply of land is declining, small and medium -sized houses will be a direction of housing market in Mianyang. Therefore, publicity of the city brand should be increased to attract more foreign buyers. Real estate businesses should change direction, keep up with consumerg demands, and vigorously develop small and medium- sized houses to increase the proportion of small and medium - sized houses at the housing market. The result is of important referential value in developing the housing market of Mianyang.