陕西省人口总量时间序列的ARIMA模型

The ARIMA Model of Shaanxi Province's Population Time Series

人口研究、预测和控制是关系国计民生的大事。对全国人口总量时间序列模型，已进行了一定的研究，对陕西省人口总量时间序列模型尚未研究。通过研究陕西省人口总量时间序列（1949～2006年），应用B—J法建立了ARIMA模型。为人口预测和控制提供简单易行的统计方法。

For national economy and livelihood of the people, it is the important to study, forecast and control population. The Chinese population time series models have been formulated, but the Shaanxi population time series model has not been researched into. This paper studies the Shaanxi population time series （1949 -2006）, and establishes its ARIMA model by B - J method. It supplies a simple and easy operating statistical method for forecasting and controlling population