贸易强国的评判体系构建及其指标化——基于GPNS的实证分析

The Instructions about the Index of the Power Nation in Foreign Trade:An Empirical Research based on Theories of GPNS

中国是"大而不强"还是"大而且强"?对于一国贸易国类型的判别,定性分析多,定量分析少,本文基于全球生产网络(GPNS)来构建贸易强国的指标体系,并进行因子分析法的实证分析,得出贸易强国的判别标准,即贸易效益因子、贸易环境因子以及贸易结构因子。在此基础上,通过综合得分进行聚类分析,得出结论是:中国是贸易大国而不是贸易强国,中国处于第三阶梯,处于价值链的中低端。中国要实现从贸易大国向贸易强国转变,需要从贸易效益、贸易结构、贸易环境方三个方面着手改善。

Is China a large nation but not a power nation or a large and power nation? Based on the theory of global production networks, this paper has built a power nation's index system, and we have got three factors of judging the power nation through a empirical study with the factor analysis, they are the trading efficiency factor, the trade structure factor, and the environment factor. On this basis, this paper uses hierarchical cluster analysis method to prove that China is a large nation but not a power nation, china is at the lower chain in GPNS. In order to change itself from the large nation to the power nation, China should improve the trade benefit, the trade structure and the trade environment.