中国的价格贸易条件恶化——基于影响因素的经验分析

The Deterioration of China's Net Barter Term of Trade:An Empirical Analysis based on the Impact Factors

我国的价格贸易条件一直在恶化,本文利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法对此进行了影响因素的实证分析,发现实际汇率、初级产品进口、工业制成品出口和贸易收支在长期内都不同程度地恶化着我国的贸易条件,这其中又以工业制成品出口的恶化效应最大,但这种恶化是中国经济成长过程中作为一个大国必须对世界做出的贡献。最后基于此分析和全球化的视角得出贸易条件的含义有所转变的结论。

China's NBTT has always been deteriorating, toward which this paper makes an positive analysis based on the impact factors using impulse response function and variance decomposition, it turns out that real exchange rate, imports of preliminary goods, exports of manufactured goods and surplus of balance of payments all deteriorate our NBTT to a different extent in the long run, among which manufactured goods exert the most negative effect. But this deterioration is an inevitable contribution that China has to make to the world as a huge economically growing country. Finally according to this analysis and perspective of globalization it can be concluded that the meaning of terms of trade has changed.