双边自由贸易区热的政治经济学分析——一个新区域主义视角

A Political Economy Analysis on the Upsurge in Establishing Bilateral Free Trade Area:A perspective of New Regionalism

当WTO框架下的多边贸易谈判陷入僵局时,越来越多的国家开始热衷于双边自由贸易区的建立,国际贸易的双边时代已经到来。本文以古诺均衡为基础构建理论模型,论证大国积极筹建双边自由贸易区是为了在将来可能的多边谈判中更有话语权,即增加多边框架下的谈判筹码。接下来利用美国的相关数据,采用贸易引力模型进行实证分析,验证了理论的可靠性。通过理论与实证分析得出结论:未来的多边谈判将是几大利益集团之间的角逐。

When multilateral trade negotiations reach the impasse under the WTO frameworks, more and more countries are being fascinated by establishment of bilateral free trade area, as a period of bilateral trade is coming. On the basis of Cournot equilibrium, this thesis demonstrates that through setting up bilateral FTA actively, the power states will acquire much dominance in future's multilateral negotiations. That is to say, the chips in multilateral negotiations of these states will be increased. Based on the trade gravity model, it uses the American data to test and verify the reliability of the model. Finally, a conclusion will be obtained, that the multilateral negotiatons in the future will be a tussle among several interst groups.