道路交通意外事件影响范围确定方法

Determination impact area of traffic incident

为便于针对交通意外事件及时采取交通疏导措施,提出了一种城市交通意外事件影响范围确定方法.该方法在事发地点周边寻找交通分流区域,通过OD矩阵反推、交通流的重新分配和滚动优化,估算实施的交通疏导措施后,该区域内交通流总出行时间的变化情况,并以此作为确定交通意外事件造成的交通影响范围的评判标准,实时寻找合理的交通意外事件影响范围.以南京城区局部道路网为对象,结合交通意外事件的相关数据,对该方法进行了模拟仿真实验.实验表明:该方法确定交通意外事件影响范围的有效性和可行性;同时,该方法还充分考虑到交通疏导措施可能对事发地点周边城市交通网造成的负面影响,有利于交通紧急疏导方案的制定与实施.

To take traffic dispersion measures timely for a traffic incident, a new method for determining the impact area of incident is proposed. The method firstly selects a candidate area around the incident site for traffic dispersion, and then applies origin-destination （OD） matrix estimation, traffic re-assignment and receding horizon optimization to estimate the change of total travel time in the candidate area during traffic dispersion. Finally, the change is regarded as a criterion to search the reasonable impact area of the incident. This method was implemented in the urban traffic road network at Nanjing in China according torelated traffic data. The experiment demonstrates that the method is of validity and feasibility to determine the impact area of the incident. In addition, the method can comprehensively consider potential negative effects of traffic dispersion, which is helpful to frame an urgent traffic management project for the incident.