对我国社会消费品零售总额的分析和预测

Analysis and Prediction for the Retail Amount of Social Consumer Product in China

文章运用时间序列中的建模方法并使用SAS软件,对我国社会消费品零售总额的历年数据建立了ARIMA模型,揭示出数据的变化规律,并且通过模型对以后几年社会消费品零售总额做了预测。

In this paper,we established ARIMA model to the retail amount of social consumer product using some series methods and SAS systems. Based on the model, we found regular pattern of the data , and predicted the retail amount in the next years.