我国外部失衡的分解与评估

Analysis and Evaluation on China’s External Imbalance

文章对造成我国外部失衡的原因进行了定量分析和评估。定量分析显示,我国目前的外部失衡主要是内生性和外源性的,是国内外实质经济因素共同作用的结果,有其客观必然性和存在的合理性,在短期内不可能靠调控政策完全消除,强行消除反而不利于经济稳定运行。面对外部失衡的政策重点在于尽力阻断外部失衡向国内经济传导和对国内经济协调运行构成负面冲击。

This paper makes a quantitative analysis and evaluation on China＇s external imbalance. The quantitative analysis shows that our country＇s external imbalance is mainly endogenous, and the main endogenous factors come abroad. The imbalance is inevitable and difficult to eliminate by policies in the short-run. Further, eliminating by force may be harmful to the stability of economy. Therefore, it is necessary to control government income and expense moderately and increase the share of social expenditure. Meanwhile, the state foreign exchange investment company should be availed adequately to absorb the excessive supply in the foreign exchange market to interdict external imbalance transmitting to interior economy.