摘要
"舒默-格雷厄姆法案"是美国施压人民币升值的一个最重的筹码。该法案具有浓厚的贸易保护主义特征,其核心内容是"美国将对所有从中国进口的产品征收27.5%的惩罚性关税"。文章从理论和实证上证明了该法案对美国的通货膨胀、GDP和就业率都存在逆向报复效应;同时,通过因果检验及VAR模型测算了该效应的大小。文章的结论是,"舒默-格雷厄姆法案"的实施将导致美国每年损失约50万个就业机会,远大于因中国进口商品竞争而丧失的就业数量。美国应做的是进行痛苦的结构改革,除此之外,没有捷径;而中国也不会短视地受迫于各类"汇率报复案",打乱其汇率制度改革的节奏。
The Schumer-Graham bill brought the Sino-U. S. game on RMB exchange rate to a critical point. This paper proves theoretically that the bill would exert evident negative impacts on the U.S. economy, meanwhile through Granger test and VAR model, these ＂impacts＂ are quantitatively evaluated. The conclusion is the enforcement of the Schumer-Graham bill would force the U.S. to pay more on job opportunities than it is paying now. To balance the economy, the U. S. should embark a painful structural reform. There is no shortcut.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第10期50-60,共11页
Journal of Finance and Economics
