Rees-Wackernagel生态足迹模型的改进及其应用

Modification and Application of Rees-Wackernagel Ecological Footprint Model

从均衡因子调整（基于生态生产性土地的综合生态服务功能）和增加污染吸纳地两个方面对Rees-Wackerna-gel生态足迹模型进行改进。运用改进后的模型,对常州市2001～2005年的生态足迹进行计算,并与均衡因子调整前的计算结果进行对比。在此基础上,选择10个社会经济发展相关指标为自变量,以人均生态足迹为因变量,相关性分析后的结果表明：（1）常州市人均生态足迹在2001～2005年呈上升趋势;（2）常州市的人均生态足迹在研究年份内随时间的变化趋势可分别用线性函数较好的表示;（3）常州市的人均生态足迹与经济密度有较好的线性相关关系;（4）根据生态足迹与经济密度之间的线性相关关系式预测表明常州市的人均生态足迹在未来5年内还将进一步增加,需要采取积极的生态保护措施;（5）采用不同生态均衡因子计算得到的常州市人均生态足迹变化特征相似,但是绝对值相差较大,由此对生态足迹静态评估进行了反思,研究生态足迹变化及其变化的社会经济驱动机制更有意义。

The Rees--Wackernagel model is modified in two aspects in this paper： taking account of integrative ecological functions of ecologically productive area to adjust equivalence factors, and adding pollution--absorbing area. With the modified and original model, the ecological footprint of Changzhou from 2001 to 2005 is calculated and analyzes. Then a linear regression model is established to analyze the relationship between regional ecological appropriation and socio--economic system, regarding per capita ecological footprint as dependent variable and ten correlative socio--economic indices as independent variables. The results showed that： （1） the ecological footprint increased from 2001 to 2005. （2） The linear changes of ecological footprint could be modeled with equations. （3） The ecological footprint was negatively and linearly correlated with economy density. （4） The ecological footprint predicted would continuely increase in the future 5 years, and effective actions are needed to maintain sustainable development of the region. （5）it is concluded that in future studies more attentions should be paid on dynamic ecological footprint and the mechanisms controlling the changes of ecological footprint in order to provide useful guidelines for ecology protection and sustainable development.