新兴技术的风险识别与三维分析——基于动态评估过程的视角

Identification and Three-dimensional Analysis on the Risks of Emerging Technologies Based on the Process of Dynamic Evaluation

本文以新兴技术动态评估方法为基础,讨论了其过程中每一步骤的风险组成。提出可以将这些风险沿着技术环境、技术自身、企业组织三个方向进行归纳、分层,并建立了新兴技术风险评估的三维分析概念模型。特别指出在新兴技术评估过程中,管理者对那些更远期、深层、抽象、隐含层面的风险的认知和理解显得尤为重要。

Based on dynamic evaluation of emerging technologies, the thesis discusses the composition of risks for each phase in the process. It suggests that these risks can be concluded and delaminated along the three directions of technology environment, technology itself, firms organizing. Then the three - dimensional conceptive model of analysis on risks is given. It especially points that the cognition and comprehension are very important for the long - dated, deep - seated, way -out, connotative risks during the evaluation of an emerging technology.