苏州市耕地数量动态变化及驱动力分析

Analysis on Dynamic Change and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land in Suzhou

基于近30a的统计资料和近10a来土地详查与变更数据,分析苏州市耕地数量变化的动态过程及其空间差异,并通过主成分分析初步探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子。研究表明:苏州市耕地数量呈现明显的波动减少趋势,耕地变化的区域差异显著;人口增长、工业化、第三产业发展等社会经济因素是引起耕地变化的内在决定性因子,农业技术进步、经济利益驱动等因素是影响耕地数量变化外部驱动因子。图4,表3,参5。

With the statistical data of social economy related to land use from 1978 - 2005, the paper analyzed the dynamic changes of quantitative and regional differences of cultivated land in Suzhou, Based on principal component analysis, the major driving forces that influence the changes of cultivated land are discussed. The results showed that general trend of cultivated land was decreasing and the regional differences of cultivated land were very notable. The population growth, industrialization and tertiary industry development are the direct driving forces that caused cultivated land change whereas technique advancement and economic benefits are indirect driving forces.