中美两国工业化进程中铜消费指标分析

Analysis on the Indexes of Copper Consumption in the Process of Industrialization for China and USA

工业化进程与资源消耗密切相关,GDP或人均GDP可用来衡量一个国家的工业化进程。本文以5年为一个时间段分析了中美两国历史上单位GDP铜消费量(T)的变化,发现中国1960～2005年间单位GDP的铜消费量并未出现明显的上升或下降趋势;美国1929～2005年间单位GDP的铜消费量基本上呈较明显的下降趋势,在20世纪20～40年代T值在高位持续了一定年份,不过自1941年以后T值逐步下降,单位GDP的铜消费量降低了81%。GDP的年增长率(g)和单位GDP铜消费量的年下降率(t)是影响铜消费量变化的两个重要参数,对应不同的单位GDP铜消费量年下降率的假设,文章估算出未来中国经济增长与铜消费指标间的关系以及单位GDP铜消费量降低的百分数,提出了一些实现铜消费减量的措施。最后,给出了中美两国工业化进程中的铜消费量与GDP、人均铜消费量与人均GDP间的关系曲线,总结出铜消费的一些规律。

Resources consumption is closely related with the process of industrialization, and GDP or GDP per capita can be used to weigh the process of industrialization for a country. The historical variations of copper consumption per unit GDP （T） in China and USA were analyzed in this paper. Taking fives years as a time-span, the variation of copper consumption per unit GDP in China didn＇t form obvious up or down trend from 1960 to 2005. But the copper consumption per unit GDP in USA decreased as a whole from 1929 to 2005, and the values of copper consumption per unit GDP persisted at a high level in the period of 1920-1940 in last century, but the values of copper consumption per unit GDP decreased on the whole since 1941, copper consumption per unit GDP decreased 81 percent. Some formulas reflecting the relationships between the indexes copper consumption and GDP were derived from IPAT equation, and the annual growth rate of GDP （g） and annual decreasing rate of copper consumption per unit GDP （t） are two key parameters influencing copper consumption. On the different assumptions of annual decreasing rate of copper consumption per unit GDP, the relationships between economic growth and copper consumption in China were demonstrated, and from which the increasing times of GDP per unit copper consumption in the future for China were estimated. Some measures of decreasing copper consumption were given. The relative curves of copper consumption and GDP, copper consumption per capita and GDP per capita in the process of industrialization for China and USA were given. The developing process in USA has demonstrated that the economic growth and copper consumption was closely related, and some rules of copper consumption in the industrialization process are deduced from the analysis.