《周易》揲扐算法结果数的出现概率及考古应用

Probabilities of Specific Numbers Resulted from Sele calculation in The Book of Changes and Its Applications in Archaeology

对《周易》成卦所用揲扐计算结果数的出现概率进行了分折,发现6、7、8、9这四个可能得到的结果数的出现概率分别为0.0517、0.2888、0.4483和0.2112。《左传》和《国语》中十四个筮例的相关数据印证了计算的结果。这个结论可以为揲扐算法定型时期的下限为西周晚期提供一个旁证。

The probabilities of specific numbers resulted from Sele calculation used in the forming of divinatory symbols are analyzed. The probabilities of four possibly resulted numbers of 6,7,8,9 are respectively 0.0517, 0. 2888, 0.4483 and 0.2112. Related numbers in fourteen divinatory instances in Zuo Zhuan and Guo Yu confirm the results. This conclusion can provide a circumstantial evidence that the earliest time of the formation of Sele calculation was in the late Western Zhou dynasty.