天然气管道泄漏爆炸后果评价模型对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Evaluation Models for Explosion Consequence Caused by Leakage of Natural Gas Pipelines

天然气管道失效可能导致多种严重后果,爆炸灾害给周围的人员和建筑物造成重大的危害,对其爆炸危害范围的评价进行研究具有重要现实意义。笔者综合分析蒸气云爆炸(VCE)定量评价模型和API pub 581后果评价模型;并以某输气管道为实例对爆炸后果进行了定量模拟评价;得到死亡区域与泄漏时间的关系,确定了其爆炸事故的伤害范围;对两种模型的评价结果进行了对比分析。爆炸后果评价模型的研究与其对比探讨,为今后输气管线的定量风险后果评价模型选取提供参考依据。

Failure of natural gas pipelines can cause various severe consequences, among which the most serious one is explosion, which can pose a significant threat to people and property in the vicinity of the failure location. So it is significant to evaluate the damaging range of natural gas explosion. The quantitative evaluation model of VCE （ Vapor Cloud Explosion） and API pub 581 evaluation model for explosion consequence are analyzed in the paper. Then quantitative simulation evaluations are made on the explosion consequence of a nature gas pipeline according to the two models, the relation between death area and leakage time is obtained and the damaging range of explosion is determined. Based on these results, a comparative analysis is made on the evaluating results obtained by the two models. This study results provide a reference for the selection of quantitative risk evaluation models for natural gas pipeline in the future.