土地资源约束对中国经济增长的影响

The Influence of Land Resources Restriction on Economic Growth

每个国家都不可避免会受到土地资源约束对经济增长的影响。已有研究是基于要素替代弹性为1的C-D生产函数,该假设并不符合现实经济世界中要素替代弹性各不相同的事实,本文选择二级三要素CES生产函数作为基础模型,度量可能更符合中国土地资源特点的"增长阻尼"。计量结果表明,中国每年的经济增长速度比没有土地资源约束的情形下降低了0.46%,是美国的1.91倍,土地资源"开源"与"节流"同举并重成为保证中国经济继续稳态增长的现实选择。

No country could avoid the influences of land resources restriction on economic growth. To keep the analysis manageable, the former researches started with the case of Cobb-Douglas production, in which the elasticity of substitution was 1, but the assumption was not true in the real economy world, so we choose the three factor-two level CES production function as the basic model to study the growth drag of land resources. The results indicated that the drag of land resource on economic growth in China was 0. 0046 annually, 1.91 times as much as America ＇s. By land readjustment and substitute of capital and technique to the land resources, China will be on a balanced growth path in the future.