内蒙古多伦县沙漠化驱动因素影响的累加效应分析

Cumulative Impacts of Driving Factors on Desertification in Duolun Country,Inner Mongolia

以内蒙古多伦县为研究区,选择若干指标,在系统分析沙漠化自然和人文驱动因素的基础上,采用滑动平均法和灰色关联法进行了沙漠化驱动因素影响的累加效应分析。结果表明：人为驱动因素对沙漠化作用的累加效应以较短时间尺度为主,而自然驱动因素对沙漠化作用的累加效应以中小时间尺度为主。年均气温的累加效应在3a尺度上最大,年均降水量的累加效应在4a尺度上最明显,而蒸发量和平均风速则随着时间尺度的增加其影响增大,在10a尺度上表现得最为明显;人口数量在1a尺度上达到了最高值;耕地面积对沙漠化的影响在1～10a尺度上逐渐减少;粮食总量对沙漠化的影响在5a尺度上影响达到最大;国内生产总值对沙漠化的影响在2a尺度上影响最大;牲畜头数对沙漠化的影响在2a平均尺度上表现得最为明显。人口数量的增长是耕地面积和牲畜头数对沙漠化影响产生累加效应的主要原因。

Taking Duolun County,Inner Mongolia as the study area,the paper analyzed the cumulative impact of driving forces to desertification with moving-average method and grey relational analysis method.The results showed that the cumulative impact of human activities on desertification was in relatively short-time scale, and the cumulative impact of natural activities was in middle-short time scale.For details,the accumulative impact of annual mean temperature came to the maximum in the third year,the accumulative impact of annual mean precipitation was the most significant in the fourth year,the impact of evaporation and wind speed was gradually increased with the time scale increasing and was the most significant in the tenth year;the impact of population reached the maximum in the first year,that of the farmland area gradually decreased in the duration of one to ten years;the impact of grain output reached the maximum in the fifth year;the impact of GDP was in the maximum in the second year;the impact of total number of livestock was the most significant in the second year.The principal causes of the cumulative impact of cropland index and carrying capacity on desertification is the increasing pressure on environment and resource due to increasing population.