面向防洪救灾的人口空间分布模拟——以大安市为例

Flood prevention and rescue-oriented spatial population distribution simulation: a case study on Da'an City

人是最重要的受灾体,准确的人口空间模拟是衡量洪涝灾情和实施防灾救灾的重要依据。利用遥感数据模拟人口空间分布需解决两大难题:(1)居民地类型、面积、位置的精确获取;(2)居民地类型、面积与人口数量的关系。基于地理意义和数学意义,对经典的城市人口-面积异速生长模型进行了扩展,导出了城乡人口-面积统一模型;并以大安市为例,建立了居民地分类体系,以1∶5万地形图为辅助数据,利用ETM影像提取居民地信息,在上述模型的基础上建立了人口分布的反演模型,模拟人口的空间分布。通过精度评价,进一步证明了基于遥感数据的人口统计数据空间化的研究思路是切实可行的。

Human being is the most important desaster-suffering body. Accurately simulating distribution of population is important foundation for evaluating flood disaster and preventing and rescuing flood. There are two main problems for simulating distribution of population using remote sensing （RS） data： （ 1 ） how to obtain information about type, area and position of residential ; （2） what being the relation between the type, area and position of residential quarters and the amount of population. Based on geographical sense and mathematical sense, this paper generalizes model of allometric growth of urban population-area, integrates rural and urban population-area models. Then taking Da＇an City as a case, using 1：50 000 map as an assistant data and building up classification system of residential points, this paper uses ETM images to extract the information about residential area, sets up inversion model of population distribution. Precision appraising proves that the RS-based modeling population spatial distribution method is feasible.