山东省莒南县肾综合征出血热的空间分布及其时空动态变化

The Spatial Distribution and Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Junan County,Shandong Province

目的研究莒南县肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的空间分布状态及其时空动态变化,为调整和优化山东省HFRS的综合防治策略提供科学依据。方法应用疾病空间分布概率模型及病例空间分布量化指标探讨莒南县1975-2004年HFRS的空间分布特点。结果从1975-2004年,莒南县各自然村HFRS的空间分布经历了Poisson分布→负二项分布→Poisson分布的变化过程;HFRS的发病水平经历了自然散发→局部流行→暴发流行→局部流行→散发的变化过程。结论莒南县HFRS的发病已处于低发病水平散发期。需根据HFRS疫点村类型,发病时空动态分布特点,主要宿主动物及其生活习性制定HFRS的综合防制措施,尽可能维持鼠类之间的生态平衡,才能有效防治HFRS。

Objective To study the spatial distribution and spatio-temporal dynamics of HFRS in Junan county to provide scientific evidence for adjustment and optimization of the integrate prevention and control strategy for HFRS in Shandong Province. Methods The probability models on spatial distribution of disease and quantitative indicators on spatial distribution of cases have been applied to analyze the characteristics of spatial distribution of HFRS from 1975 to 2004 in Junan county. Results From 1975 to 2004,the spatial distribution of HFRS in villages in Junan county has gone through from Poisson distribution to negative binomial distribution, and from negative binomial distribution to Poisson distribution. The epidemic process of HFRS in Junan county has gone through the following 5 stages： natural sporadic→local epidemic→outbreak→local epidemie→sporadie. Conclusions At present, the spatial structure of HFRS in Junan county is on low level in case density, and its epidemic characteristic is sporadic. The integrate prevention and control measures for HFRS should be established to keep the ecology balance between house-rat and wild-rat on the basis of the type of epidemic villages, spatio-temporal dynamic characteristic of HFRS, the main host animals and their living habits, and so on.