90年代至2010年亚太地区石油贸易结构的变化

Changing Patterns of the Asia-Pacific Oil Trade in the 1990s and beyond

1995年亚太地区的原油消费总量为1510万桶/日,其中本地区自产原油占44％,中东原油占51％,从世界其他地区进口的原油占5％。2000年亚太地区的原油进口量预计将增加到1130万桶/日,其中39％由本地区自产,采自中东和其他地区的分别占55％和6％。中东原油在亚太地区原油消费总量中的比重将上升到2005年的64％和2010年的69％。未来15年以布伦特油为基准的油价对亚太地区三种原油价格公式的影响将明显加大。1998年亚太地区的油品净进口量预计将达到260万桶/日,2000年将达到290万桶/日。2000～2005年,亚太地区的粗柴油、液化石油气和石脑油可能缺口较大,而汽油将保持供求平衡,并可能有少量的剩余。汽油、石脑油的价差将变小,粗柴油的价格将超过汽油的价格,低硫燃料油和高硫燃料油的价差可能加大。在未来的10～15年里,亚太地区的石油贸易结构的变化将对世界石油市场产生重大的影响。中东石油产量增长的绝大部分将出口到亚太地区。亚太地区还将从西非、北海和拉丁美洲进口更多的低硫原油。

In 1995 , the Asia-Pacific region used a total of 15. 1 million b/d of crude oil. of which the region's own crude accounted for 44 %, imported Middle East crudes accounted for 51%. and the other 5% was from other parts of the world. By 2000, crude imports into the Asia-Pacific region are expected to rise to 11. 3 million b/d. of which the region's own crude would account for about 39%. and crudes from the Middle East and the other parts of the world would account for 55% and 6% respectively. The share of the Middle East crudes in the Asia-Pacific region's total crude use is expected to rise to 64% in 2005, and 69% in 2010. The influence of Brent-based prices is expected to rise substantially over the next fifteen years to impact on price formulas for all three types of crudes used in the Asia-Pacific region. In 1998, the Asia-Pacific's net import requirements for petroleum products are expected to rise to' 2. 6 million b/d. Between 2000 and 2005, the region would be consistently short of gasoil, LPG, and naphtha on a huge scale. On the other hand, a gasoline balance (perhaps with small surpluses) is emerging in the region. The gasoil-naph- tha price differential is expected to narrow, and the gasoil price would rise above the gasoline price. The price differential between these two products in the region is likely to widen. Changing oil trade patterns in the Asia-Pacific region over the next ten to fifteen years are likely to significantly impact the global oil market. Most of the forecast increase in Middle East production will be export to Asia and the Pacific. Higher demand for imported sweet crudes from West Africa, the North Sea, and Latin America is likely to emerge.