电力客户风险评估的熵权层次分析方法研究

Risk Evaluation of Electric Customers on the Entropy Weight AHP

在电力市场环境下,电力客户的各种行为将直接或间接地导致企业风险的产生,客户风险问题已经成为电力企业研究的焦点问题。本文针对国内仅仅开放了发电侧竞争这一电力市场现状,剖析了供电企业的风险环境和风险因素,以及电力客户在这些风险因素中所起的作用,建立了电力客户的风险指标体系。在此基础上建立了基于熵权的层次分析法的电力客户风险评估模型,并进一步探讨了应用数据挖掘技术进行的电力客户风险分析和防范措施。应用企业实际数据测算结果验证了客户风险指标体系及其评估模型的有效性和适用性。

In the current electricity market environment,various actions of power customers will directly or indirectly lead to the emergence of risks. Electricity enterprises attach great importance to the risk of power customers. In China, only electricity generation side is deregulated and opened now. In this paper, risk environment and risk factors faced by electricity retail enterprises are analyzed, and the role played by power customers in these risk factors is discussed. Power customer＇s risk type and risk indicators are also summarized in this paper. A risk evaluation model of customer risk is established based on the AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） which uses the entropy method, and the risk analysis and risk avoidance measure which uses the technology of data mining are discussed. In the end, the validity and applicability of the risk indicators and evaluation model are validated using the practice data of electricity enterprise.